With all the divergent claims and forecasts made by "the experts" concerning world oil supplies the average person has to wonder if any are telling the truth. However one thing seems certain. Even though many of you might disagree, the rise in gas prices are long overdue and once we get accustomed to higher prices they should stay up and not go back to previous levels. The fact is we should have been paying more for gasoline a long time ago just like most other nations on this earth have done. In the past, because of our economic and military clout the United States has been successful at holding down the cost of oil and gas price at the pumps and has kept energy costs low as a means to fuel our economy. That's all changing as pressures from a growing world economy are coming to bear. As more and more jobs are moved to other nations, as the dollar continues it's slide and as America continues to borrow money from other nations (one feeds the other) our debt could reach the point of no return.
Oh we'll survive, no question about that, but as the saying goes, it won't be your grandfather's Oldsmobile. Ironically, that familiar saying used to denote substantial change for the better, but it can be used today to suggest an ominous prevision. Not only is an Oldsmobile no longer what it used to be, it also no longer exists. The first mass produced automobile (That's right, it wasn't Ford) and the first to use chrome and offer an automatic transmission, anyone my age would have never believed the Oldsmobile would fade and die before other less noteworthy brands - but it did. And few today could ever conceive a time when America might not be the innovative, economic and military powerhouse we have come to accept as our destiny, but it can happen. And it will if we don't wake up to reality.
Since so many manufacturing jobs are being transferred to low wage nations, more and more the building of suburban houses and all their accompanying infrastructure has become the basis of our national economy. This careless concern for energy conservation along with out of control spending may give the rest of the world reason to conclude that the US has poor economic prospects, and therefore other nations will feel a steep disincentive to continue investing in our debt and equities. The loans will dry up and foreclosures will be filed.
There are some who are calling to mind the economic crisis that caused the demise of the USSR. Most agree the former USSR became financially stretched and went into an economic tailspin trying to match the US in a strategic arms race and while funding a huge military to maintain control of it's various territories. In addition they were fighting the 10-year war in Afghanistan. Does this feel eerily familiar?
Certainly the US economy is nowhere near the state the USSR was in but pressures from the new global economy are forcing the US to change in many ways that threatens our way of life. High energy consumption and the decreasing availability of oil will continue to cause world conflict between nations and will change almost every facet of our life and in the products we produce and consume. As a nation, we and our leadership seem completely unprepared and unwilling to admit that the way we live is a problem, that we can't continue to binge on oil as if there is no tomorrow. Before the hole becomes too deep and suffering becomes unbearable, we need to seriously address developing hydrogen power and other alternative energy sources, and establish mass transportation systems as Europe and Japan has done. We also need to restore passenger railroad service and address urban sprawl. As Robert Kennedy Jr. has stated "Our nation's sense of identity is now tragically linked to a living arrangement that has no future."
The feeble step to confront this problem of energy self-sufficiency by drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWAR) is a sad commentary on the Bush administration and their unwillingness to confront the energy problem head on. ANWAR contains an estimated four billion barrels of oil. Since America uses over 20 million barrels a day (one billion every fifty days), ANWAR represents about a half year's supply. This amounts to emptying the piggy bank to stave off eventual starvation when the hard work of planting and tending a garden is the only real alternative. We should be immediately taking the more difficult steps to wean ourselves from our addictive dependence on oil before the required steps become so drastic they create chaos and extreme suffering. Responding to energy needs by invading and taking control of the oil rich nations of the middle east (and perhaps South America in the future) is not the legacy we should want to pass on to our children and not the way we should want other nations to view us.
Burning fossil fuels have created a greenhouse effect that most scientists now agree is the cause of the dangerous global warming that we are beginning to experience. Warmer ocean temperatures are spawning more volatile hurricanes, melting the world's ice caps and creating other erratic and destructive weather patterns. Dependency on oil increases the likelihood of further military entanglements, and threatens the economy with inflation, high interest rates and risky foreign indebtedness. Oil profits from middle east nations fall into the hands of extremists and fuel their acts of terrorism against us.
A higher gas tax that would help maintain gas prices in the $3.00 per gallon range would not only increase the demand for more energy efficient automobiles and public transportation systems, it would also help reduce urban sprawl and provide revenues to help finance research and development of alternative energy systems. The benefits of all this would help establish new technology and jobs. As a stop-gap measure, Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana has been promoting a "bridge to the future" in the form of zero-emission coal liquifaction. This process, that was developed several decades ago, converts coal into individual hydrogens, oxygens, and carbons that allows for synthesizing diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuels. Governor Schweitzer claims there is enough coal in Montana alone to supply the United States energy needs for the next 30-40 years. In the meantime we could be developing a combination of clean energy sources including bio-diesel, wind power and hydrogen power.
As our own Al Gore and many other visionaries have warned, failure to plan ahead and act immediately to move towards energy self-sufficiency is foolish and by delaying in this effort we are causing dangerous injury to the world's environment. America stands by and continues to gobble up oil while other nations are taking the initiative to develop the technology to survive without it. They have the foresight to see that whoever commands and applies these technologies will create new industry and grow and invigorate their economies while creating a healthy environment for their citizens. America should be setting the example for others and should be leading this effort, but instead has moved down the wrong path.
Gary
Here are two reports that support my view.
Gas Taxes: Lesser Evil, Greater Good
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/opinion/24mon1.html?th&emc=th
Iraq Invasion May Be Remembered as Start of the Age of Oil Scarcity http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/03/20/MNGJKBS9PM1.DTL
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